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London, UK

According to London-based Chesterton Humberts/CEBR DECMBER 2011 House Price Poll of Polls report, UK house prices remain suppressed as the economy flirts with a double-dip recession.

In the midst of a housing double-dip that has lasted for ten straight months, confidence has yet to fully return in the market. House prices have fallen year-on-year by 0.6% in January which is a reflection of price declines across all regions outside London.

A total of 52,939 mortgage approvals were transacted in December 2011, which is 24.5% higher than the same month a year earlier. However, mortgage approvals are still some 50% below levels reached during 2007.

Key highlights of House Price Poll of Polls report include;

House prices in the UK are -0.6% lower in January 2012 compared to a year earlier.
The average house price is £175,020, which is around 1.5% lower than the average house price throughout 2010 and broadly flat compared to 2011.
Business confidence remains weak in January, which point to increased chances of a double-dip recession. This is likely to rein in housing transaction activity.

Robert Bartlett

Robert Bartlett, Chesterton Humberts’ CEO tells World Property Channel, “Although the market remains sluggish, the four traditional drivers of property sales ensure that transactions continue to take place. Thankfully, due to continuing low interest rates, debt is less of a sales driver than it has been in previous recessions but death and divorce are unfortunately always with us. Downsizing can be quite a relief to homeowners longing for freedom from having to maintain a property too large for their current needs.

“The fact that house prices are lower in many parts of the country compared to last year is particularly poignant as December 2010 was fraught with disrupted economic activity and poor weather conditions. This year, by contrast, December 2011 was comparatively mild in terms of weather, although uncertainty from the Eurozone crisis had reached its peak during this time.”

Bartlett concludes, “London remains ahead with house prices on an annual basis 3.9% higher in January 2012 compared to a year earlier. The South East is the only other region where prices are higher compared to last year – a meager 0.2% higher compared to last year.”

Lower registered house prices compared to last year are particularly poignant as December 2010 was fraught with disrupted economic activity and poor weather conditions. In contrast, December 2011 was comparatively mild in terms of weather, although uncertainty from a Eurozone crisis had reached its peak during this time.

Douglas McWilliams, Chief Executive of CEBR also commented, “The latest business confidence numbers for Q1 2012 show sentiment remaining firmly in negative territory. Indeed, we could already be in the midst of a recession, which implies further falls for house prices in the months ahead. However, we may see additional quantitative easing from the Bank of England as early as spring, which will prevent mortgage lending in the economy from flat-lining completely.”

The methodology behind the Poll of Polls is unique in that it uses all of the major national house price and asking price indicators and weights their results according to the historical accuracy of the various indices. It also captures all residential properties, rather than only those which have been sold or are for sale, by incorporating the stock of residential properties in England and Wales.

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According to Jacksonville-based Lender Processing Services “First Look” report for January 2012, foreclosure starts were on the rise in January. This data is derived from their 40 million U.S. loan database.

Here are key highlights of LPS’s January 2019 First Look report:

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 7.97%
Month-over-month change in delinquency rate: -2.2%
Year-over-year change in delinquency rate: -10.5%
Total U.S foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 4.15%
Month-over-month change in foreclosure presale inventory rate: 1.1%
Year-over-year change in foreclosure presale inventory rate: -0.1%
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: (A) 3,998,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 1,772,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: (B) 2,084,000
Number of properties that are 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: (A+B) 6,082,000

Fort Lauderdale, FL

According to the Broward Council of the Miami Association of Realtors, sales of Broward County homes – including existing single-family homes and condominiums – increased six percent, from 6,225 to 6,572, in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to a year earlier.

Broward sales of existing single-family homes increased 15 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to a year earlier. The sales of existing condominiums dropped a negligible one percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. Statewide sales of single-family homes increased seven percent while sales of condominiums increased four percent.

“The Broward County real estate market had a very strong year in 2011, as heightened demand caused housing inventory to decline sharply,” said Rick Burch, 2012 president of the Broward County Board of Governors of the Miami Association of Realtors. “Now, as expected, limited housing supply is resulting in notable price appreciation, which is currently rare in most markets throughout the U.S.”

Median Sales Prices

The median sales price for single-family homes in Broward in the fourth quarter of 2011 was $188,900, a five percent increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. The median sales price for condominiums was $77,300, an 11 percent increase compared to a year earlier. Statewide, median sales prices dropped one percent to $132,000 for single-family homes and rose five percent to $88,800 for condominiums.

Inventory Levels

Total housing inventory in Broward County has decreased 33 percent from a year ago and 1.2 percent from the previous quarter.

“The Broward real estate market attracts both U.S. and international buyers due to the great year-round weather, affordability, ocean proximity, and exciting lifestyle South Florida has to offer,” said Ernesto Vega, president-elect of the Broward County Board of Governors of the Miami Association of Realtors. “Continued demand for Broward properties is resulting in limited housing supply and further price appreciation.”

Duane Vinson

According to the January 2012 STR/McGraw Hill Construction Dodge Pipeline Report released this week, the total active U.S. hotel development pipeline comprises 2,736 projects totaling 293,143 rooms.

This represents a 1.6-percent decrease in the number of rooms in the total active pipeline compared to January 2011. The total active pipeline data includes projects in the In Construction, Final Planning and Planning stages, but does not include projects in the Pre-Planning stage.

The U.S. hotel industry reported an increase in rooms under construction (+3.4 percent with 52,425 rooms), compared with January 2011.

“The general sentiment coming from the Americas Lodging Investment Summit last month was one of optimism,” said Duane Vinson, VP, content management and integrity at STR. “Brand leadership, developers and owners all are poised with plans to once again launch into full development mode once the U.S. economic environment is right. However, with continued economic uncertainty, lending still fairly constricted and virtually no real movement in new project numbers, we can only assume the time is not yet right.

“While the overall number of projects year-over-year barely above even, more hotels are progressing in development, moving from Planning into Final Planning,” Vinson said. “Last January, the number of rooms in planning stood at 198,357. That number now stands at 133,205. Final planning rooms have gone from 48,818 to 107,513 in the latest January release.”

Among the Chain Scale segments, the Upper Upscale segment reported the largest increase in rooms in the total active pipeline, rising 34.1 percent to 19,786 rooms, followed by the Economy segment (+29.7 percent to 4,507 rooms) and the Upscale segment (+12.6 percent to 74,267 rooms). The Unaffiliated segment reported the most rooms in the total active pipeline with 83,297 rooms.

Three segments ended the month with increases in the number of rooms under construction: the Luxury segment (+45.2 percent with 819 rooms); the Upscale segment (+40.9 percent with 16,594 rooms); and the Upper Upscale segment (+15.5 percent with 7,622 rooms).

U.S. pipeline by Chain Scale segment (number of rooms and percent change January 2012 vs. January 2011):

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